The Kansas City Chiefs have done a nice job of playing the spoiler this season. They beat Green Bay a few weeks ago and they will try to be the spoiler again at Denver. The Broncos likely need a win in order to make the playoffs. Kansas City doesn’t have much to play for itself, but QB Kyle Orton is itching to show his former team that they made the wrong choice. You can expect the Chiefs to play their best game against a Denver team that will need to play above its head. 

The Chiefs have a strong secondary and can limit Denver through the air. This poses problems for Tim Tebow, as it will allow the Chiefs to load the box and stop his running game. I would expect Kansas City to come out and be competitive in this game, perhaps even winning it outright. If you are making your NFL picks and you want to focus on this game, then be sure to consider these and other factors. 

This game has some great playoff implications and that is a good thing for Bengals fans. It has been a while since they were able to get excited about the possibility of January football. This time, the Ravens come calling and they are favored by just short of a field goal. The Ravens need to win this game to lock down the division. Meanwhile, Cincinnati needs this game if it wants to make the playoffs. Playing at home, one would expect the Bengals to have some success, especially on defense. But can Andy Dalton hold up under the pressure of playoff implications and a good Baltimore defense. 

Here, this feels like the type of game where public bettors get burned by taking the Ravens. With the Bengals at home and in need of a big win, this is the type of spot where they should step up in a big way. Don’t get fooled into thinking that the Ravens are going to roll in this game. Motivation is a funny thing and the Bengals have more of it. Think about that as you look at the matchups and try to make your NFL picks this weekend. 

The Packers finally lost last week. They looked pretty bad against a Chiefs defense that has been a lot better than people realize all year long. Now, the Packers are 13-point home favorites against a Chicago team that has absolutely been reeling. This looks like a good spot for Green Bay to take out some frustration and really lay into the Bears. But there are some questions that you need to answer if you are going to make your NFL picks on the Packers this weekend. 

The first of those questions has everything to do with motivation. Do the Packers rest players? Will they put out their best effort? A highly motivated Green Bay team could beat this Chicago team by a ton of points. But if they come out and lay an egg, they likely won’t cover this number. It all comes down to how much you trust the Packers to put on a good show. I tend to think that the Green Bay defense will control things and that the Packers offense won’t have to score that much in order to run away with this game. 

Let’s get one thing straight. This might be listed as a home game for the Jets, but these two share a stadium. They are both playing at home this week, with the Jets coming in as a field goal favorite as of the writing of this article. So who should you be making your NFL picks on this weekend if you want to have action on this game? You will want to consider the matchups, as these teams have some interesting differences that will provide for tough matchups all over. 

The Giants like to throw the ball these days. When they are successful, it is typically because Eli Manning did something impressive. Meanwhile the Jets have the best secondary in football according to many people. They will be hurt without starting safety Jim Leonard, so that is something to think about, as well. The Jets will be missing some key components on offense, but they should still have success moving the ball against a porous Giants defense. You will likely see the Jets take control on defense and force some turnovers in this game. They are a good bet this week if you insist on making NFL picks. 

At the start of the year, it wasn’t at all weird to think that this would be the Super Bowl of the AFC South. Then Peyton Manning went down and things changed. This week, the Texans head to Indy as 6-point favorites against a Colts team that just got off the snide last weekend. Can the Colts cover the number in this one, or are they going to be left with only a single a win?

The six points seems like a lot for any person making NFL picks this weekend. Simply put, it is hard to cover that kind of number on the road when you don’t have a lot of motivation. The Texans have locked up the division and they mailed it in at home last week. They do have a third string QB under center, so just how much can you possibly trust them this week? There might be a little bit of value in a Colts team that seems to be finding its legs just a little bit. Think about playing the Colts with your NFL picks this weekend, as the Texans might not cover such an inflated number on the road. 

This is another game where a big time team from the east coast is forced to head out west to play in primetime. The difference here is that San Francisco is for real and they are favored by around a field goal in this game. Here, we have a matchup with a lot of intrigue and even more questions. Understand this and you will be ahead of the game. Pittsburgh will have a hard time with the physicality of San Fran, but they might have the guns to win this one if everyone is healthy. That is the big question, though, and it is something that you will want to figure out as you prepare to make your NFL picks this weekend. 

The injury question for the Steelers is at QB. Ben Roethlisberger makes the machine in Pittsburgh go. Without him, they are not going to win this game. Both Charlie Batch and Dennis Dixon are not NFL-quality quarterbacks. This means that you need to know that Ben is playing if you are going to bet this game. If you make a bet expecting him to play and he is severely limited, then you will be regretting your position. With that in mind, it makes the most sense to wait this game out a little bit if you have the patience to do that. Pittsburgh will still be there on the board on Monday if you want to make that bet. 

Likewise, know that the Steelers will be without James Harrison, who was suspended by the league for his hit on Colt McCoy last week. This is a big blow to a defense that desperately needs his playmaking ability. This is not reason in and of itself to fade Pittsburgh, but with all of the factors taken together, it would be hard to play on them. This is especially true given the nature of the roadtrip here. They are being asked to head out on the road and make a long trip. This could be a good week to hammer the 49ers and win some easy cash. 

This Sunday night game has a lot of angles that have to be considered if you want to win some money with your NFL picks this weekend. The Giants have been a good road team, but this is a tough trip late in the season. The Cowboys were good in November, but have wilted into their December selves once again. They are also favored by 3.5 points in this game, so that is a lot of lumber to lay against a Giants team that actually has some good pieces. In this game, you have to consider a wide range of different things if you want to make the best picks. 

The Giants should be able to move the ball against the Cowboys. Eli Manning has shown himself capable against almost all defenses. Even on the road, Manning has been pretty good over the last couple of years. One thing to consider, though, is that the Giants might be a little bit down after losing a close one last week. They put a lot of effort into winning that game, so there may be something of a letdown this week. You will want to consider that, as you don’t want to have your money on a tired, unmotivated team this week. 

You have to also consider that Dallas has the potential to come out and play really well. They haven’t made good on that potential yet this season, but it is still there. Be careful going against them, especially at home. This is even more important given the fact that so many people are betting on New York. This feels like one of those spots where the public backs the road underdog and gets burnt in the end. You don’t want to be on that train when it goes off the tracks. Dallas might be the play here, despite the fact that it looks the other way. 

The Bears and the Broncos are a couple of proud franchises. This year, though, there are some quarterback issues going on with each team. For Denver, those “issues” have manifested in the form of Tim Tebow, a man who has somehow won five games. The rage on Tebow has been relentless, as some love him and some don’t. Some think he is a winner, while others think he can’t play in the league. The truth is that the guy can’t throw, but he’s been able to run the ball effectively up to this point. He’s been able to keep his team moving at key points. The true winner for the Broncos has been their offensive line and their defense, though. 

On the other side of the coin, the Bears were rolling until they ran into a snag. They lost Jay Cutler to an injury and the results have not been pretty. Caleb Haynie has been bad, to say to the least, in his relief of Cutler. Last week, they lost Forte. With their best two offensive players on the shelf, this Bears team stands little chance of scoring a lot against a good Broncos defense. They are also going out to play a tough game in a tough environment. If you look at this one objectively, you can see where there is a clear edge for the Broncos. They will probably struggle some against the Bears defense, but they should win this game. 

If you are looking for another angle here, you might play the under. These two teams will combine to run the ball a lot an drain the clock. The Broncos will really take the air out of it, especially in the first half. Perhaps playing the under in the first half is the best play on the board. When you are making NFL picks this week, you need to look for those little opportunities. There are some strong angles this week if you are willing to look outside of the box to make the majority of your plays. The under could be a money maker this week for you. 

This used to be one of the best rivalries in the NFC. When Michael Vick and Julius Peppers lined up across from one another in a game that meant the division, this was always one of the best games on the board. These days, the Panthers are rebuilding and the Falcons are spinning their wheels. Though this was supposed to be a year where Atlanta took a step forward, it seems that they are stuck in neutral. Matt Ryan and company haven’t been able to get off the ground in 2011. Last week, they went out to Houston and let one get away against a team that was playing its third string quarterback. 

In this game, the Falcons are predictably a field goal favorite. The Panthers are at home and they have been playing much better football. Cam Newton has been able to move the ball down the field and they have been scoring points all season. The defense has struggled at times and the run game has been a bit suspect, but the Panthers are a strong team at home. They are trending in the right direction, while the Falcons seem to be headed the wrong way. The only thing to keep in mind here is that Atlanta has to win this game. If they want to make the playoffs, this one is an absolute must. 

The line suggests that Carolina is the right play. When you make your NFL picks, you want to keep in mind a lot of factors, though. Even though the public seems to be back Atlanta here, the Panthers could jump up and win this game outright. Who you pick in this game ultimately depends upon how much you trust Matt Ryan. Do you trust that he can exploit a Carolina secondary that has been pretty bad all year? If you trust Ryan, then the answer is easy. You should be on the Falcons to cover a small number. If you don’t trust Ryan, then you should be on the Panthers in a game that they have a chance to win outright. The value might be in the points here. 

When the Saints are only laying a little bit more than a field goal, it is going to gain some attention of the people making the free NFL picks. Simply put, the Saints are a team that people love to bet at almost any number. With that in mind, this one seems a little bit low. The Titans aren’t the best team in the AFC, but they have shown the ability to battle this year. With Chris Johnson coming on a little bit, they have a chance to win this game at home. If you are making your NFL picks this week, you might want to consider taking the points in what might be a close game. 

This might go against conventional wisdom, as the Saints have been rolling. They have beaten two good opponents in primetime over the last two weeks. But know that those games were at home. The Saints are a different team at home as they have shown over the years. After people watched them dismantle the Giants and Lions, public perception is strongly in their corner this weekend. That is yet another reason to consider going the other way in this game. Simply put, there is too much public love for the favorite here. This feels like the kind of trap game where the Titans rise up and at least put up as good fight against a team that has struggled some on the road. 

Ultimately I believe that Tennessee will be able to run the ball on New Orleans. Chris Johnson will have a big day. The game will turn on how well the Titans can limit Drew Brees. No one can expect this Titans defense to shut down the Saints, but they could potentially make life hard on Brees. This is what you have to be looking for if you are going to bet on the Titans. You need a performance out of Brees on the road that does not look like the last two weeks. Whether or not this comes to fruition is a matter for debate. This game looks to be tight, but it might not be a bad idea to take the points in this one.